Context & Analysis
Source:
Web Article
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Geoffrey Hinton, Yann LeCun, and other AI pioneers deserve recognition. Nobel prizes lag current tech. Chemistry or Physics prize most likely category.
Will AI researchers win Nobel Prize in 2026?
YES 44%
NO 56%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: October 12, 2026
Resolves YES if:
AI researchers win Nobel Prize in 2026 on or before October 12, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
AI researchers win Nobel Prize in 2026 does not occur by October 12, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 17
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
44% YES
Yes 44%
No 56%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
44%
No
56%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$0.0K
Total Volume
$478.0K
Traders
0
Category
Technology
Resolves
2026-10-12 11:59 PM EST
