Context & Analysis
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Australia dominates global lithium supply. EV boom driving massive demand. New mines coming online but competition from South America and Africa intensifying.
Will Australian lithium exports exceed $15B AUD in 2026?
YES 69%
NO 31%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: January 31, 2027
Resolves YES if:
Australian lithium exports exceed $15B AUD in 2026 on or before January 31, 2027.
Resolves NO if:
Australian lithium exports exceed $15B AUD in 2026 does not occur by January 31, 2027.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 17
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
69% YES
Yes 69%
No 31%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
69%
No
31%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$0.0K
Total Volume
$423.0K
Traders
0
Category
Economics
Resolves
2027-01-31 11:59 PM EST
