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Will Australia finalize AUKUS submarine design by end 2026?

Historic AUKUS deal moving forward. Nuclear submarine program facing technical and political challenges. Final design approval crucial milestone.

Will Australia finalize AUKUS submarine design by end 2026?

YES 64% NO 36%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
Australia finalize AUKUS submarine design by end 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
Australia finalize AUKUS submarine design by end 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 17 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 64% YES
Yes 64%
No 36%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 64%
No 36%