Context & Analysis
Source:
Web Article
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Google's Gemini competing fiercely with OpenAI. New versions promised with improved capabilities. AI arms race intensifying between tech giants.
Will Google Gemini surpass GPT-4 benchmarks in 2026?
YES 61%
NO 39%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
Google Gemini surpass GPT-4 benchmarks in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
Google Gemini surpass GPT-4 benchmarks in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 16
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
61% YES
Yes 61%
No 39%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
61%
No
39%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$0.0K
Total Volume
$534.0K
Traders
0
Category
Technology
Resolves
2026-12-31 11:59 PM EST
