Feed
Will consumer humanoid robot launch in 2026?

Tesla Optimus, Figure AI, and others developing humanoid robots. Consumer applications still unclear. Price point and usefulness key questions.

Will consumer humanoid robot launch in 2026?

YES 36% NO 64%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
consumer humanoid robot launch in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
consumer humanoid robot launch in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 16 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 36% YES
Yes 36%
No 64%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 36%
No 64%