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Will settler population in West Bank increase by 5% in 2026?

Settlement expansion continues amid international criticism. Israeli government approving new construction. Demographic shifts with major political implications.

Will settler population in West Bank increase by 5% in 2026?

YES 57% NO 42%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: January 31, 2027
Resolves YES if:
settler population in West Bank increase by 5% in 2026 on or before January 31, 2027.
Resolves NO if:
settler population in West Bank increase by 5% in 2026 does not occur by January 31, 2027.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 17 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 57% YES
Yes 57%
No 42%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 57%
No 42%