Context & Analysis
Source:
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OpenAI continues rapid AI development with speculation mounting about GPT-5. Sam Altman has hinted at major breakthroughs coming. Market resolves on official release.
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 in 2026?
YES 57%
NO 42%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
OpenAI release GPT-5 in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
OpenAI release GPT-5 in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 16
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
57% YES
Yes 57%
No 42%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
57%
No
42%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$0.0K
Total Volume
$678.0K
Traders
0
Category
Technology
Resolves
2026-12-31 11:59 PM EST
