Context & Analysis
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Microsoft's investment in OpenAI massive. Speculation about full acquisition constant. Sam Altman drama raised questions. This tracks acquisition possibility.
(Hypothetical) Will Microsoft fully acquire OpenAI in 2026?
YES 22%
NO 78%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
(Hypothetical) Microsoft fully acquire OpenAI in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
(Hypothetical) Microsoft fully acquire OpenAI in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 16
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
22% YES
Yes 22%
No 78%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
22%
No
78%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$0.0K
Total Volume
$734.0K
Traders
0
Category
Technology
Resolves
2026-12-31 11:59 PM EST
