Feed
Will practical quantum computing breakthrough occur in 2026?

Quantum computing hype versus reality. Google, IBM, and startups racing for advantage. Practical application beyond research still elusive.

Will practical quantum computing breakthrough occur in 2026?

YES 34% NO 65%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
practical quantum computing breakthrough occur in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
practical quantum computing breakthrough occur in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 17 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 34% YES
Yes 34%
No 65%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 34%
No 65%