Context & Analysis
Source:
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Drama at OpenAI in 2023 showed board tensions. Altman's leadership controversial but effective. Speculation about governance changes persists.
(Hypothetical) Will Sam Altman be replaced as OpenAI CEO in 2026?
YES 16%
NO 84%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
(Hypothetical) Sam Altman be replaced as OpenAI CEO in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
(Hypothetical) Sam Altman be replaced as OpenAI CEO in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 16
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
16% YES
Yes 16%
No 84%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
16%
No
84%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$0.0K
Total Volume
$512.0K
Traders
0
Category
Technology
Resolves
2026-12-31 11:59 PM EST
