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Will SpaceX land Starship on Mars in 2026?

SpaceX's Starship development accelerating. Mars launch windows limited. Ambitious timeline but Elon's track record shows possibility. Uncrewed mission expected first.

Will SpaceX land Starship on Mars in 2026?

YES 18% NO 82%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
SpaceX land Starship on Mars in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
SpaceX land Starship on Mars in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 16 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 18% YES
Yes 18%
No 82%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 18%
No 82%