Context & Analysis
Source:
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Meta's Threads launched to challenge X (Twitter). Growth explosive initially but retention questioned. Zuckerberg versus Musk battle for social media dominance.
(Hypothetical) Will Threads surpass Twitter/X in daily users by 2026?
YES 34%
NO 65%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
(Hypothetical) Threads surpass Twitter/X in daily users by 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
(Hypothetical) Threads surpass Twitter/X in daily users by 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 17
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
34% YES
Yes 34%
No 65%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
34%
No
65%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$0.0K
Total Volume
$512.0K
Traders
0
Category
Technology
Resolves
2026-12-31 11:59 PM EST
