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Will TikTok be banned in the United States in 2026?

Years-long TikTok ban debate continues. National security concerns versus free speech. ByteDance resisting forced sale. Political pressure mounting.

Will TikTok be banned in the United States in 2026?

YES 38% NO 62%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
TikTok be banned in the United States in 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
TikTok be banned in the United States in 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 17 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 38% YES
Yes 38%
No 62%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 38%
No 62%