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Will Turkey complete 50% of earthquake reconstruction by end 2026?

Massive rebuilding effort continues after devastating 2023 earthquakes. Government promised rapid reconstruction but progress slower than expected. Hundreds of thousands still displaced.

Will Turkey complete 50% of earthquake reconstruction by end 2026?

YES 47% NO 53%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
Turkey complete 50% of earthquake reconstruction by end 2026 on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
Turkey complete 50% of earthquake reconstruction by end 2026 does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 17 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 47% YES
Yes 47%
No 53%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 47%
No 53%