Feed
Will Turkey reach agreement with US on S-400 missile system?

Years-long dispute over Turkish purchase of Russian S-400 continues. US excluded Turkey from F-35 program. Both sides seeking face-saving compromise.

Will Turkey reach agreement with US on S-400 missile system?

YES 38% NO 62%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: December 31, 2026
Resolves YES if:
Turkey reach agreement with US on S-400 missile system on or before December 31, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
Turkey reach agreement with US on S-400 missile system does not occur by December 31, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now
Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 17 | Now
CURRENT BELIEF 38% YES
Yes 38%
No 62%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 38%
No 62%