Context & Analysis
Source:
Web Article
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Will Google's Gemini surpass GPT-4 on benchmarks by mid-2026?
YES 59%
NO 41%
Market Rules
Resolution Date: March 20, 2026
Resolves YES if:
Google's Gemini surpass GPT-4 on benchmarks by mid-2026 on or before March 20, 2026.
Resolves NO if:
Google's Gemini surpass GPT-4 on benchmarks by mid-2026 does not occur by March 20, 2026.
Measurement Criteria:
Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.
BELIEF CURRENTS
2026-02-11 → Now
Start
|
Feb 13
|
Feb 15
|
Feb 16
|
Now
CURRENT BELIEF
59% YES
Yes 59%
No 41%
PROBABILITY OVER TIME
Current Belief
Yes
59%
No
41%
Market Stats
24h Volume
$91.0K
Total Volume
$1120.0K
Traders
4567
Category
Technology
Resolves
2026-03-20 11:59 PM EST
