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Will OpenAI release GPT-5 in 2026?

YES 68% NO 31%

Market Rules

Resolution Date: March 20, 2026

Resolves YES if:

OpenAI release GPT-5 in 2026 on or before March 20, 2026.

Resolves NO if:

OpenAI release GPT-5 in 2026 does not occur by March 20, 2026.

Measurement Criteria:

Resolution based on official sources, verified data, or authoritative announcements as of the resolution date. Ambiguous cases may resolve as N/A or be extended.

BELIEF CURRENTS

2026-02-11 → Now

Start | Feb 13 | Feb 15 | Feb 16 | Now

CURRENT BELIEF 68% YES

Yes 68%

No 31%

PROBABILITY OVER TIME

Current Belief

Yes 68%

No 31%

Market Stats

24h Volume $145.0K

Total Volume $1890.0K

Traders 6789

Category Technology

Resolves 2026-03-20 11:59 PM EST

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